also tonight, senator al simpson takes a twiep at grover nor quist and grover will be right here to respond to senator simpson. and newt gingrich is going to handicap the whole debate for us live. i'm larry kudlow. "the kudlow report" just moments away. >> after the bell, amd blows up. what else is new? i like to say there's always a market somewhere. i promise to find it for you right here at "mad money." i'm jim cramer, and i will see you tomorrow. larry, what are you looking at tonight? >> all right, jimmy. you are looking at center college in beautiful downtown danville, kentucky. it's the site of the only vice presidential debate between joe biden and republican nominee paul ryan. good evening, everyone. i'm larry kudlow. this is "the kudlow report." with mitt romney's resounding victory last week and his continuing victory the week after the debate and the fact that he is not rolling in momentum in the polls, the whole race has changed. barack obama was casing big bird

for a week. he fell right into a trap, and that's why, folks, i venture this veep debate tonight could be far more significant than usual, and team obama is leaving it up to uncle joe biden to make their comeback. oh, boy. biden will have to make the case that president obama deserves a second term, and no one, including obama himself, has yet made that case. former presidential candidate newt gingrich who knows a thing or two about all of this is my very special guest. also this evening, the u.s. embassy in yemen was attack. expect the consulate attack in benghazi will be brought up in the debate tonight. neither president obama for vice president biden has faced the press with any tough questions about what did they know and when did they know it about bengz? and how dare team obama call this a political issue stirred up by republicans.

that's remarkable. first, take a look at this. last week, the real clear politics electoral map had the president holding on to 251-181 electoral votes lead. today the map flipped. five states went from leaning obama to a tossup. that's michigan, new hampshire, pennsylvania, wisconsin and ohio. so it's now 201-181.. it's the narrowest electoral margin yet. 50 electoral votes erased from the obama side in one week. he spent too much time chasing big bird, didn't he? this evening paul ryan has the opportunity to keep this momentum going in his debate with vice president biden. cnbc's own john harwood is in kentucky. good evening, john. welcome. >> reporter: good evening, larry. it is going to be a big night tonight. i've got to start out by saying i think if you talk to political professionals in both parties they don't see the electoral map that auspicious for romney is that real clear politics map with the states shifted.

if you look at the real clear map only with no tossup states, where they push all the states where somebody has an advantage, obama is in a much stronger position, and we saw from our polls today that milt romney is trailing by six points in the state of ohio where he must win. but the test tonight for paul ryan is to try, us a mention, to accelerate the momentum that romney gained last week and try to prevent joe biden from coming out very aggressively and saying, hey, wait a minute. president obama may not have said it, but i'm going to say it tonight. there are contradictions between the romney who was on stage in denver, the romney record. joe biden is an experienced debater. he sometimes makes mistakes verbally. we'll see how he handles that, and paul ryan is young. there's a very large age gap between these two, but he is somebody who is very fluent in policy, as you know. an intellectual leader of the party. i expect he'll be able to hold his own, but we'll have to see exactly how tough these two candidates get with one another while keeping in mind that their job is to focus on the top of

the other guy's ticket. ryan on obama and joe biden on mitt romney. >> you are so right, john. that's the key. the tops of the tickets that will really matter at the end of the day or the end of the evening. thanks, john. we'll see you later on in the show and tonight's vice presidential debate, the tax discussion will be a key issue, the so-called $5 trillion tax cut for rich people. now, take a listen to former senator alan simpson in an exclusive interview only on cnbc today. >> you have a situation where grover norquist has obtained this pledge in the '80s, in the early '90s, he got this pledge that you wouldn't raise taxes under any circumstances unless they are commensurate with spending cuts and those guys are enthralled to him. >> best way to take that on is to reform the tax code, to broaden the base and simplify the code, to wipe out these tax expenditures and use that money to reduce rates. >> well, all right. lo looks like bowles supports the grover norquist idea which is

the romney idea. sounds like simpson, as usual, is being very crotchety. let's get to the two guests to get to the hoe-down. dean baker from the center for economic and policy research and the aforementioned grover norquist, president of americans for tax freedom. first of all, grover, what is alan simpson talking about? >> well, simpson and bowles, their proposal, the one thing they are specific about is they will take taxes from 18.5% of the economy under normal circumstances, the historical average for the last 30, 40 years, to 21%. that over a decade is a $5 trillion tax increase. they tend not to talk about it, but it's the most important thing in simpson/bowles, a $5 trillion tax increase. there is no room for tax reform because they take all that lovely money, and they spend it. >> look, okay, there's tax rates and tax revenues. now a couple of things, tax rates, marginal rates are different from tax revenues. revenues can come from growth,

from capped deductions. i just want to ask you, grover, do you support mitt romney's plan which would lower the rates, put a strict limit on the dollars of tax deductions and increase the economic growth rate? do you support romney? >> well, romney's plan is revenue neutral. he's made a commitment to the american people not to have a net tax increase. that's a great plan. obama wants higher tax rates, and schumer, the leader in the senate, made that clear as well, so it's between romney wanting to cut your tax rates and obama wanting to increase your top tax rates. that's the difference between the two parties. >> all right. dean baker, get you into this discussion. you know, dean, the brookings institute supports lower tax rates and knocking out deductions. that's what they want. everybody in washington except team obama. obama's idea, and biden's idea is to jack up tax rates for the upper end. lord knows what they are going to do with deductions. that isn't tax reform.

they are the odd people out. >> well, lord doesn't know what governor romney wants to do. that's what we're trying to figure out. maybe representative ryan will be able to tell us tonight because the point was he's saying he wants it to be revenue neutral. he's told us how much he wants to cut taxes for the wealthy, and then he says he's not going to eliminate the tax deductions for middle-income people. that doesn't add up. >> it does add up. i've got to challenge you. >> you're talking about the brookings institute. i looked at their study. they are the ones who say it doesn't add up. >> no, no, wait a second. they have completely backed off, dean. >> no, they have not. >> yes, they have. >> i read their stuff. they have not backed off one iota. >> go back and read them the last 72 hours because they put in the wrong assumptions for these caps on deductions. here's my point, dean. here's my point. what mr. romney has said in a detailed statement is he is going to put a strict dollar limit on these deductions, and that deduction is going to be lower for the middle class than

the upper cass, 17,000 to 25,000 to 35,000. no one has ever done that before. that limit could raise over $1 trillion over time, dean. >> larry, you only get that if you take away tax deductions for the middle class that exceed their tax breaks. the point is if you're cutting taxes for the wealthy, as much as he's saying, you're not going -- you don't make up warren buffett. if you give him a 20% tax cut, you don't make it up by taking away his mortgage interest deduction. >> take his charitable deduction. >> grover norquist, i beg to differ with my friend dean baker who usually gets it right but if you put a strict dollar limit, for example, on charitable deductions and health care deductions and state and local tax deductions, and if you put a dollar limit on that, grover, you make a bloody fortune at the upper end, so their tax rates at the margin would come down but their deductions would be lost. that would balance it in a revenue neutral way, and i'm going to throw in economic growth, grover. that will get to you 4% xhieconc

growth which throws off -- >> we've been there, larry. >> the economic growth is the most important part. what we have with obama, if obama had had the kind of growth that reagan did from the bottom of the recession, there would be 10 million more americans at work. >> it's a very different recession. >> 10 million americans not working because obama spent money and raised taxes rather than -- >> a very different recession. the collapse of the housing bubble. >> dean, i don't want to go through the housing bubble. >> i don't want to either, but we did. >> the housing bubble is not going to come up for debate. i'm stick together debate tonight, and joe biden has been out on the campaign trail proudly, proudly boasting that he and mr. obama are going to have a $1 trillion tax hike on rich people. now i ask you, dean baker. i appeal to your sensibilities about economic growth. how can a $1 trillion tax hike on the most successful and small business possibly get us out of this economic malaise?

i appeal to your senseabilities, dean baker. >> i would say it won't hurt. had a big tax rise on the same job creators pack in the '90s and we were creating 3 million jobs a year. it won't hurt, but that by itself won't do it. frankly, if i thought for a moment that governor romney was going to say let's have a real big tax cut and run large deficits i'd say good for you, and back him on that, but i can't trust him. >> grover, i tried. i'll give you the last word. 20 seconds, grover. what's your last response? >> the difference, romney and ryan are going to take less spending and lower taxes, and that's better for the economy. >> music to my ears, grover norquist, but it is always great to welcome back dean baker to this program. thanks very much. >> thanks, larry. >> late err on, the white house forced to face their cover-up lies about benghazi gate. vice president joe biden goes on the record before millions of people at tonight's debate. also, is the administration lying to us about the benghazi terror attack? tweet us right no

now @thekudlowreport, all one record, #kudlow. we will read your tweets on the air when we come back. don't forget, free market capitalism is the best path to prosperity. nowy what? paul ryan is going to carry free market capitalism in tonight's debate. you all wait and see. that's my prediction. i'm kudlow. we'll be right back. [ male announcer ] the 2013 smart comes with 8 airbags, a crash management system and the world's only tridion safety cell which can withstand over three and a half tons. small in size. big on safety.

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welcome back to "the kudlow report." i'm jackie d'angelis at the kudlow tweet desk. before the break larry asked you to tweet your responses in. did the administration lie about the attacks in benghazi. this person says, yes, kudlow, the adminition to us about benghazi, and i'm sure many other things. larry, we also got some responses on facebook as well. douglas munn says i don't believe the attacks had anything to do with a video. just the fact that they were carried out on 9/11 indicates the thought and planning that was involved. our lack of added security is sickening. larry. >> see, i just love that because these are well-informed viewers. they don't always have to agree with me, but you look at these responses. these are people who are really following the news, and this news on the benghazi cover-up is

going to haunt mr. biden tonight, and it's going to haunt mr. obama next week. jackie d'angelis, thank you very much. >> absolutely. >> we'll visit later on. a little stock market work. believe it or not, we'll talk stocks. stocks down a wee bit today, but they certainly are not out. citigroup came out with a very bullish note forecasting u.s. equities to outperform global markets. and, folks, you know from last evening i see a romney growth revolution in the making. i think it's totally bullish for stocks and the economy, and as i said last night for the first time, i believe mr. romney will win the election. let's talk to jack bouroudjian, ceo of bull and bear partners. you know, jacking, the way i look at it. okay, investors, take profit chips off the table, that's fine. i have no problem with that, but i believe that the animal spirits will explode if there's a romney/ryan victory, and i believe that victory is now in sight. i want to get your take. feel free to disagree with my, my friend. >> i have no problem disagreeing with you, larry, except i'm not

going to do it this time. i think you're absolutely right. let's take a step back and understand what's happened to the market. we have been experiencing what i call a suppressed valuation. you are looking at corporate america making more than they have ever made before but the multiple on this market, which is really the psychology of the market, has been suppressed. that is the vote on the obama administration. let's face it. if that were the same market under a reagan or a bush or even a clinton looking at a 20 or 25 multiple, we'd be trading at 2,000 or 2,500 in the s&p. we're looking right now at a situation where the weakness over the course of the last couple of days has been nothing more than protection being bought into the unknown which is the election, and that's -- >> that's ancillary weakness. >> i'll just repeat some of the things i said last night. i'm certainly no stock picker. leave that to my great pal, the brilliant jim cramer. all i'll say is in a romney victory i think the growth factor moves up to 4% growth in this country. i don't care about europe and china. i'm just saying in this country.

they will probably follow. look, that means what? you start buying cyclicals, start buying industrials, start buying materials. you buy energy because romney is pro energy. you buy coal because romney is pro coal. you buy health care because romney won't nationalize the entire health care system. these are areas people will be buying on any dips or corrections >> i think you've got to buy everything if romney wins. i think we see a run in the market that takes us up 400 to 500 s&p points in a matter of six to eight months and that's a direct result of what you just described. progrowth and supply side are the answers to this problem we're in right now. >> and if take home pay is going up because of the romney/ryan tax cuts, as i believe it also, if it's anything like what happened were reagan in his across-the-board tax cut many years ago, take home pay goes up, the consumer cyclical stocks go up, jack bouroudjian, they go up, and that's a big surprise to a whole lot of people. >> a simple formula. when you give people back their own money and let them spend it,

the old milton freedman line, things are better off for the entire economy. >> thanks for helping us out this evening. coming up, america deserves straight answers from the white house. the u.s. ambassador was assassinated and obama's foreign policy is falling apart. tonight joe biden faces the music before millions of viewers. all that up next. two years ago, the people of bp made a commitment to the gulf. and every day since, we've worked hard to keep it. bp has paid over twenty-three billion dollars to help people and businesses who were affected, and to cover cleanup costs.

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welcome back to "the kudlow report." i'm jackie d'angelis reporting from the kudlow tweet desk.

we asked you if you thought the administration was lying to us about the attack in benghazi. another response says the murder of the ambassador no coincidence. complete set up from the start. larry? >> i think a lot of americans are very angry at these events around our consulate and benghazi. i think that's what these tweets are showing. >> it sounds like it. >> yeah, thank you very much for helping. a lot of anger out there, and my guess is it's democrats and republicans who are angry because of the loss of life and the bad way this was handled. anyway, a news alert. once again a u.s. embassy did come under attack today, this time in yemen. a security investor was shot and killed by masked men on a motorcycle. meanwhile, the benghazi gate scandal growing deeper tonight. here's what we know. the administration denied additional security to the american consulate in libya. they denied the security request, and the white house apparently lied to the american people about what really happened, and take a listen to this shocking statement from

obama's wacky deputy campaign manager today. >> had we had any different information, we would have put it out. we would have told the american people what we knew. the entire reason that this has become the -- the, you know, political topic it is is because of mitt romney and paul ryan. >> i am sorry, stephanie cutter, i am sorry, but you are completely wrong. that is one of the worst statements i have ever heard. you're absolutely nuts. people died in this. this is a major national and international issue, and it is a war on terror which you, miss cutter, and your candidate obama still do not understand, the war on terror. let me get this straight. once again, an american ambassador killed for the first time since 1979 and somehow cutter says it's just a political campaign issue. nonsense. all right. tonight. for the first time will vice president biden before millions of people watching the debate finally answer for the

administration's failures and blatant fallshoods? will he come clean? let's talk to former assistant secretary of state rich williamson. he's senior romney campaign foreign policy adviser. all right. we evened it out. put cutter's statement up there. now we have my friend ambassador rich. you know, i'm reading jennifer -- jennifer reuben's blog today, and she told me something i didn't know. i want to getake on this. you're a state department alumni. charlene lamb of the state department apparently followed the attack on our benghazi consulate in realtime, in realtime, which is how i guess it works nowadays and therefore knew that this was not a protest about a video, but this was a gang of al qaeda-related thugs who took over the embassy. she filed this in realtime. if she had that information, then hillary clinton had that information, and if hillary clinton had that information, richard williamson, president obama had that information, and that's why americans are burned

up. >> well, we know that the day after the tragic events in benghazi that a senior state department official briefed some people on capitol hill, referred to it as a terrorist attack so clearly the administration, the gang that can't shoot straight, can't get its stories straight, and this lack of transparency, this lack of candor has two terrible aspects. one, it is disrespectful to the four brave americans who had served our country well, who perished in this terrorist attack, and, two, it's a failed effort to justify a war on terror through target the killings that president obama wants to claim has been successful when clearly it hasn't. >> but here's the thing. >> the al qaeda -- >> this is -- richard, i've got to get this in, rich. look, go back in time a few weeks. >> sure. >> there was a ceremony at the dover air force base, okay? a ceremony at the dover air

force base. the coffins of the ambassador and the three others who lost their life in this al qaeda attack or jihadist attack are right next to them, and they are giving us falsehoods, the president and secretary of state are giving us falsehoods blaming this on some spontaneous protest from a video when they knew, they knew, that this was because of a lack of security and the fact that it was an al qaeda attack. they knew that they were telling falsehoods while they gave this momential with the coffins right next to them at the dover air force base. rich williamson, i find that appalling, absolutely appalling. >> and it's appalling that the obama campaign wants to spin this just as politics. americans are outraged. republicans, democrats, independents. the first american ambassador since j carflter was killed. he was killed in a terrorist attack. they want answers, not spin. they want answers, not excuses.

they want a new policy to address this threat. that's what mitt romney offers. >> you're right, rich. this is not about politics. this is not about the campaign. this is about foreign policy. this is about national security, and it's -- i don't have to tell you, you're the expert. this is about the fact that the war on terror continues, and in that neck of the woods, in north africa, with al qaeda and some of their cohorts, that war on terror is getting worse, not better. it is intensifying, not receding. all right. former assistant secretary of state richard williamson, as we always appreciate you coming on. coming up tonight, fight night at the vice presidential debate, fight night, love that. former speaker of the house and presidential candidate himself newt gingrich reveals joe biden's achilles' heel. maybe there's more than one. newt is going to join me live next up. i'm bara ck o

bama, and i approve this message. "i'm not in favor of a $5 trillion tax cut. that's not my plan." mitchell: "the nonpartisan tax policy center concluded that mitt romney's tax plan would cost $4.8 trillion over 10 years." vo: why won't romney level with us about his tax plan, which gives the wealthy huge new tax breaks? because according to experts, he'd have to raise taxes on the middle class - or increase the deficit to pay for it. if we can't trust him here...

how could we ever trust him here?

welcome back to "the kudlow report. "i'm larry kudlow. in this half hour would somebody tell me why barack obama took the past week taking the bait and running against big bird and "sesame street" while his polls

it be to plunge? this segment will be brought to you by the letter "o" and the number zero. also on this half house, the one-night showdown between joe biden and paul ryan, we go exclusively inside how ryan prepped for the big night, and what are the main goals for romney and ryan's camp? what are they, and what do they want to say? let's go to robert costa from the national review online danville, cnbc contributor. the debate sunday way. bob costa as you talked to the romney/ryan people today, what phrases jump out? what do you think he wants to get across in at least a minimal way? >> they want to defend mitt romney's positions. they want to go after the obama economic record and reach out to new voters, especially view the voters who may find ryan appealing >> i keep talking about this youth thing. i think what ryan represents as a well-informed smart 42-year-old guy and does his body crunches and listens to music on his ipod and so forth, i think that's a tremendous plus

for romney, i really do. there's his picture up there. i think, you know, the youth vote is shifting to romney. it's not going to be like it was in 2008. >> that's exactly right, larry. one thing the ryan camp has pushed hard for is to have this debate be a sit-down debate and once he sits down at table with biden he can present a contrast and reach out to youth voters on entitlement and talk about the frank issues facing the country. >> i'm hoping with my fingers crossed that paul ryan stays on the growth message and the tax reform growth message that mitt romney so brilliantly did last week. tell me ryan is going to be a growth guy tonight, help solve our nation's economy. >> larry, i can promise you, just talked to ryan sources. he will be a growth guy and here's the real proof. in 1996 ryan helped prep jack kemp for his vice presidential debate. the only vice presidential

candidate in history who has prepped a pro-growth vp candidate before. >> i wish javm jack had listene him. can he deliver a knockout punch to biden and the obama campaign? let's hear from newt gingrich and he's the author of the book "no taxation my misrepresentation." newt, as always, welcome back. newt, can i ask you, you're the political expert, not me, among other things. how is it that obama loses the debate a week ago, and then he loses the week after the debate by chasing big bird and "sesame street" in a poorly baited trap set by mitt romney. obama falls into the trap and his polls crash again. he loses a debate. he loses the week after the debate, and he loses big bird. i've never seen anything like this, newt. it is amateur hour. >> well, i think what you're finally seeing is that once the shell cracks and once the facade

breaks, i think obama right now is totally disoriented. they are shocked watching six months of careful work just disappear in 90 minutes. it was the worst performance which an incumbent president i think in my lifetime. even jimmy carter did better than that 90-minute performance by obama, and i think they are probably literally shellshocked right now which sets the stage for tonight. i think it's going to be very interesting to watch tonight. i suspect, i don't know, but i suspect biden's going to come in there trying to re-establish some sense of momentum, and i think that ryan's got to go in, stick to the facts and be calm and steady and a potential president. >> just on the joe biden thing for a second. nobody, including obama, has really created an argument, a rationale, a reason for re-electing him. no one has made a concerted case why he should be re-elected. he didn't make t.obama didn't make it. how is biden going to make that

tonight? that's what people want to hear. mitt romney made it last week. obama didn't make it. do you think biden is going to try to do it? >> no. here's their problem. you can't be a serious person, look at their track record, look at benghazi, look at price of gasoline, look at unemployment, look at liberalism hiding behind big bird and make a serious case for them. they have been on a track for three months now to say however bad we are, mitt romney is worse, and what happened was they created a caricature. last week the country got to see mitt romney without the advertising, without the editorialize and without the news media slant, and they said wait a second, a lot better guy than you told us, and that's why they now have a huge problem. >> a huge problem. polls changing daily. one last thing on biden, and then i want to get back to rink, newt in. your opinion, you've known the guy a long time, what's his achilles' heel in this debate? how would you see that? you're a great debater. how would you see biden's achilles' heel? >> biden tends to misremember facts. because the news media protects

him so carefully, people don't realize in his debate with palin, for example, biden said if you want to really understand the middle class and working americans, come down with me, and he named a restaurant in wilmington. i checked the next day. that restaurant had been closed since 1978. >> wow. >> so i think it's very important to understand biden tends to misremember on a scale that very few people can match. >> all right. let's go to paul ryan. how should ryan play his cards, newt? should he be aggressive? should he come out fighting, be polite, be respectful? how should he play his hand? >> i think he should be respectful. he's dealing with a guy old enough to be either his father or grandfather, and so i think he ought to be respectful in that sense, and he's dealing with the vice president of the united states. i also think that my bias is that, and calista has known paul since he first went to work for senator castin many years ago, i think he needs to be more janesville, wisconsin and less policy wonk. he needs to remind us, to make

your point, growth really matters. his family runs a small business. he knows this. faith really matters. he's in his local church. helping your children have a better future matters. he's got a great family. making sure your mom is protected from medicare and that everything is going to work out matters. his mother retires and is still alive. i think it's very important for paul to show us the human context of his policy options and to let people get to know him as a person more than as a walking calculator. >> all right. hopefully he won't get too much in the weeds, i get that. but, you know, newt, folks, lakes take janesville for a minute, middle america, whatever. they are signature around the kitchen table and they understand the difference between rising and falling take home pay, like they get that, and this was a point ronald reagan made many years ago. you get lower tax rates. your take home pay for education, for your work, for your home, for your mortgage, that really matters. i hope, and i'm going to ask

you, will ryan follow in romney's footsteps, because i thought for the very first time romney really made that case last week, and it's helped him shoot up in the polls. >> oh, i think he l.as you know, paul ryan worked for jack kemp at empower america. he worked for castin who is one of the original supply-siders. he gets this stuff in the very heart of his being, and it's an important story to tell that in fact, if you look at the price of gasoline. obama has failed. if you look at the unemployment rate, obama has failed. the answer is not austerity. the answer is growth. if you have growth, can you mop up a lot of your problems, be prudent about spending, get back to a balanced budget which has only occurred in your lifetime because of a republican congress. >> last one, we're kind of short of time, but if biden starts crowing about his alleged foreign policy experience and knowledge and wisdom, shouldn't ryan go into this whole benghazi cover-up?

>> absolutely. i mean, he ought to look at vice president in the face and say did you agree with the intelligence community and did you try to correct the president when he was wrong? >> you know, we found out that this state department woman saw the attack live, that she saw it live in realtime and they still tried to put out this, you know, crazy story about videos and spontaneity. she watched it live, and it started at 9:30 at night. i mean, to me that's the most damning evidence i've seen. in realtime she saw it. >> and we knew it was not related to the film. >> all right. newt gingrich, thank you for helping us this evening. by the way, the new book "no taxation by misrepresentation" is available now. i hope you'll come on the radio show, newt. we'll talk more about the book. coming up tonight on "cud low," we go inside paul ryan's head. congressman aaron shock is ryan's paul, confidant, also one of his workout buddies to boot. will the heavy workouts with led

zeppelin bring out the youth vote in that's coming up next.

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report." one more tweet. in answer to our question he said libya's intelligence is just so superior to ours that they figured it out a week before us. >> you know, that's what some of the reports said. i've even read that they knew two weeks before us. again, i'm really interested in how well informed -- >> intelligent viewers. >> they are well informed on this issue and looking at details and that's why this thing is not going to go away. jackie d'angelis, thanks so much. when the dust settles from tonight's debate team obama is going to bank on a big comeback. today's polling indicates obama failed to make his case for a second term last week. that was one of his big problems. the question tonight is can joe biden do any different or any better? i'm not going to bet on it, and who can blame it. it's an impossible argument to make. how should paul ryan play the debate tonight. well, my advice to paul ryan is stay on the growth message outlined by mitt romney last week. tax, spending, regulatory

reform. higher take home pay for the middle class, and when joe biden tries to wave his foreign policy credentials, well, simply remind voters about benghazi gate and the cover-up. they lied to the american people. they must be held accountable, and by the way, by the way, if joe biden starts talking about his trillion dollar tax hike on successful earners and small businesses, paul ryan should jump right on that. you can do it politely, paul. mitt romney did it politely. mitt romney politely cleaned obama's clock last week. perhaps mr. ryan can do likewise. we will see. so, just what paul ryan's debate strategy is going to be, let's go ringside to the debate site in kentucky. we're joined live by john heilemann, the national affairs editor for "new york" magazine and a pal of paul ryan. aaron shock, when was the last

time you talked to ryan, and what is inside his head? >> well, sunday he was in chicago for a fund-raiser. i had the chance to have lunch with he and his wife jana, and, you know, he's doing great. he's had -- been doing debate prep with ted olsen who has been playing joe biden, but the great thing about paul is he's a man of substance. he's a man of specifics. he's a man of great policy depth which is why i think joe biden chose him as his running mate, and -- and so he really just needs to use this opportunity to communicate with the american people about what his plans are, and really to hold vice president biden's feet to the fire as to what the obama rhetoric s.a lot of their time has been spent villifying paul ryan, villifying their plan without offering specifics of their own or really what they have done for the four years while they have been in control of the country. >> john heilemann, seems to me joe biden's got a big problem. joe biden has a resume about foreign policy. whether one agrees with his

views or not, he has a long resume about foreign policy, as you well know, john, but here's the rub. he starts talking about foreign policy, if he tries to laud that over paul ryan, you know what's going to happen. ryan is going to go benghazi gate and nobody knows what biden is going to say because neither obama nor biden has talked to the media since this broke out. >> maybe biden will make news. i'm happy to be here with my son, congressman shock, a fantastic young man. i think that senator biden, you know, has been a systematically underestimated debater throughout his career. he makes his share of gaffs, and the gaffs that he makes lead people to think that he's dumb or that he's their kind of drunk uncle or whatever, but looking back over his history he's performed well at debates. he's a very -- he's a great student. he's a great master of applied intelligence. he tends to win the debates that

he's in by mixing a lot of data, surprisingly, with a lot of humanity, and so i think you're going to see it, and i think you'll see this from paul ryan tonight, too, an attempt not to get lost in the weeds, not to -- to make substantive arguments and to try on biden's part, particularly to try ideological contrast between him and paul ryan, but also i think an attempt on both of them to draw on their family histories and to try to make them not seem too wonky. >> we'll get some down home stuff tonight, that's fine. i'm all for that. aaron shock, i want to ask you something. in terms of policies, i think one of the winners for mitt romney a week ago is when he said several times that he would cross the aisle and seek common ground to work with democrats, to make a deal, to make a deal, that will stop america from going bankrupt and get this economy growing again. romney said that a couple of times, aaron, and i think it really helped him in the polls,

and especially among independents. now, question, to you and your friend paul ryan. do you think ryan will offer a similar olive branch, cross the line, common ground, because obama couldn't get a deal, aaron, and that's a big problem for obama. >> well, i think you raise a great -- a stark contrast between the rhetoric and the reality. here's paul ryan. he doesn't have to talk about what he would do as vice president, what his goals would be in terms of bipartisanship. he actually has a record in the congress of putting together a budget that got an overwhelming majority of conservative and moderate and liberal republicans behind that budget, and he was able to put together a medicare reform proposal, not just with republicans, but with the liberal democrat from oregon named ron widen and a bipartisan medicare proposal, in sharp contrast from the president who has had failed leadership of putting together a budget deficit reduction plan. >> i just -- i do think, you

know, putting together a budget that has the support of a bunch of republicans is not exactly -- no sdemts not a calling card for bipartisanship. >> i'll just tell you this though. i think it's very interesting who mitt romney who did a bunch of this in massachusetts has made that one of his calling cards and conservatives in the party are not revolting. i think they like the idea that mitt romney. >> they like the idea of winning. >> they like the idea of winning, you're exactly right and i think they like the idea of saving america from bankruptcy also. we have to leave it there. john heilemann, thank you very much. congressman aaron shock, same things. coming up tonight. why should president obama be re-elected? what's his case? four years of economic failure. he's got overspending. overborrowing, a middle east foreign policy crisis and now a massive cover-up over benghazi and libya. what kind of case can joe biden make for obama when obama couldn't make the re-election case for himself? our next panel will try to break through on it. uncer ] how do you make 70,000 trades a second...

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. welcome back to "the kudlow report." so the democrats are putting huge pressure on vice president biden to deliver in the wake of the president's denver debate failure and the failure the following week. they are putting all their eggs in joe biden's basket. okay. republicans baited a trap with big bird. the democrats fell right into it, hook, line and sinker, and with a term rife with failure, failure on the economy, failure to fix the country, foreign

policy, how's biden going to make the case to re-elect mr. obama when obama didn't make the case for himself? we've got cnbc contributor ari melber and phil musser, a romney surrogate and 2008 romney campaign adviser. gentlemen, welcome. ari, one of the things that struck me about the debate last week is president obama didn't really make the case to re-elect himself, and i don't know how you're going to fix that, and i don't know whether joe biden can fix that. i want you to tell me how to fix that and whether biden can do that this evening. >> i think he can. i think the bottom line is barack obama has the best job numbers in four years. you were just talking to jack welch about that. some conservatives are so unhappy with how good that is for the president that they want to make stuff up about it. i think what joe biden's got to do tonight is get in there and explain exactly how we got here and how we could be even farther along if republicans weren't filibustering so many jobs programs in the senate. that doesn't -- filibustering the senate.

i didn't defend the numbers per se. i said there was no political manipulation of those. >> you fact-checked it. >> the numbers may be subject to revision, but the point is lots of numbers are out there, phil, and they are not good numbers. this is the slowest economic recovery for jobs and gdp in modern times going back to 1947. and the real unemployment rate, including marginal workers and discouraged workers is close to 15%. >> that's right. >> so is this why obama can't run on his record? is this why he can't define the case to re-elect himself? >> right. well, he hasn't been able to yet because the evidence is overwhelming that he doesn't deserve four more years and that's why when people got a chance to see mitt romney unfilth thorred and see the authentic romney speak to the american people in a clear and compelling way you saw such an overwhelming reaction in the polls and the press. >> the polls are going nuts right now. >> let me give you one that just came out, just a few minutes ago. the mason dixon poll which polls for the tampa bay 9 news channel

in florida, just came out with a poll about 45 minutes ago, 51-44 for romney over obama in florida. you go back -- >> how about independents in that? i bet the independent thing is double digits. >> romney has made great progress with independent white men, rural voters, younger voters, and to the point of the debate -- >> did you hear me talk about how ryan's youth is a tremendous thing right here. >> ari and i were talking a little bit about this. i think one of the challenges for joe biden here tonight is in some ways, as he faced with sarah palin four years ago, got to be careful not to turn off younger voters by being patronizing. >> they are running ads in a whole bunch of states, and the basic tag line of the ad is let's finish what we started. now, i have heard smart guys like doug schohn and stan greenberg say for months and months that is not good. you got to try a new tack, but that's still what they are doing. do you think finish what they started is their message? is that a reason to re-elect

barack obama? >> the last incumbent president re-elected during a somewhat challenging time george w. bush had had a motto the whole campaign, steady leadership in times of change. i do think that the american public can distinguish between a bad situation that has a lot of historical roots and what they are trying to do, and whether you're talking about detroit or you're talking about the jobs numbers or you're talking about signs of hope or talking about a stock market that is roaring back, that doesn't fix the problems. >> a ri -- >> just to finish larry's question, i agree with your point, by the way, that the real long-term unemployment numbers are worse and that hurts people out there, but i do think people can make that distinction. >> hang on, hang on. >> i've got to hop in here. >> independents moved by one point after the debate. >> bush in '0 0 4 was running on that platform, had to do with the war. >> that's true. >> not the economy. >> what's missing -- what's missing on the obama case is leadership. he has failed fundamentally to step up and tackle big challenges for our country over the past three years f.obama wanted to win this campaign,

what he probably should have done of instead of being the fund-raiser in chief, called them together in washington and address the fiscal cliff and that would have done more to grow this economy than anything. >> romney said several times in that debate i can make a deal, can i cross the aisle, can i find common ground. see, i think -- >> here's the problem. >> this is what people want to hear and obama's the guy that blew the deal. >> this is the problem when you talk about leadership, and going to come right out of obama's mutd, mitt romney had two positions on the bailout, five positions on abortion and six positions on obama care, romney care. you can't pin this guy down so that's why they have -- >> romney worked with a democratic legislature, balanced budgets, cut taxes, had the highest per capita growth while he was governor in massachusetts. the first 100 days of a romney administration will be one dominated by progress. >> he'll solve the tax cliff in a way that bone ha doesn't have

the skills to solve it. >> absolutely. a lot to the romney story. i don't like all of it. nobody likes all of it. one thing he knows how to do is make a deal, and he's advertising that. sort of running as the deal-maker in chief, and you know what? at this moment in history to keep us out of bankruptcy it's probably a good thing. ari melber, phil musser, thank you. that's it for tonight's show. thanks for watching, everybody. our next special is coming up. i don't see the ad for it. working hard 8:00 to 9:00 p.m. stay with us on the pre-debate. >> it's the season of opportunity. who will hit? who will miss? tomorrow jpmorgan and wells fargo set the stage for financials. earnings central beginning on "squawk box" 6:00 a.m. eastern on cnbc.

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